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Mavericks vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Monday, December 29

FinalModa Center · NBC, Peacock
48% win DALwin POR 52%
FavoritePOR
Projected margin0.6
Projected total230
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Portland Trail Blazers (13-19) host the Dallas Mavericks (12-21) on Monday, December 29 at 10:30 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. Final score: Mavericks 122 – Trail Blazers 125. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Trail Blazers a 52% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Trail Blazers are 6-9 at home and the Mavericks are 3-12 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Trail Blazers and 4-6 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Trail Blazers W1, Mavericks L2).

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Trail Blazers 116 – 115 Mavericks, a margin of about 0.6 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Trail Blazers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.

  • The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Trail Blazers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)POR -2.9 / DAL -2.8 per game
-0.1
Home-court advantageTrail Blazers at home
+2.3
Back-to-backTrail Blazers played yesterday
-1.6
Expected marginfor Trail Blazers
+0.6

Scenarios

Trail Blazers win by 10+
23%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Mavericks win by 10+
20%

Stat comparison Current season

DALPOR
113.7
Points scored / game
115.0
116.9
Points allowed / game
118.4
49.0 %
Field goal %
51.1 %
34.6 %
3-point %
38.9 %
38.2
3-pointers attempted / game
43.7
76.7 %
Free throw %
70.8 %
44.2
Rebounds / game
46.3
27.6
Assists / game
30.7
9.0
Steals / game
8.3
7.4
Blocks / game
2.7
15.6
Turnovers / game
13.3

Top performers

Mavericks
Max ChristieG · #025pts / game
Cooper FlaggF · #328assists
Daniel GaffordF · #2110rebounds
Trail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #827pts / game
Deni AvdijaF · #811assists
Donovan ClinganC · #2311rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
DAL
No games played yet.
POR
No games played yet.

Team comparison

DALPOR
12-21Record13-19
113.7Points scored / game115.0
116.9Points allowed / game118.4
-2.8Adjusted margin / game-2.9
L2Current streakW1
4-6Last 10 games4-6
3-12 roadHome / road record6-9 home
39-43 (-1.2)Last season36-46 (-3.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayYes

Dallas Mavericks Injury report Mavericks

No injuries reported.

Portland Trail Blazers Injury report Trail Blazers

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.