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Pelicans vs Thunder prediction NBA · Sunday, November 2

FinalPaycom Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com, NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN OK
4% win NOwin OKC 96%
FavoriteOKC
Projected margin21.8
Projected total229
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Oklahoma City Thunder (6-0) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-5) on Sunday, November 2 at 3:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. Final score: Pelicans 106 – Thunder 137. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 96% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Pelicans are 0-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 6-0 for the Thunder and 0-5 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Thunder W6, Pelicans L5).

The analysis Model

On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Thunder 126 – 104 Pelicans, a margin of about 21.8 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The overall strength gap (+9.9 vs -9.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Thunder's offense (120.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (108.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Thunder
Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +9.9 / NO -9.6 per game
+19.5
Home-court advantageThunder at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Thunder
+21.8

Scenarios

Thunder win by 10+
83%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
7%
Pelicans win by 10+
1%

Stat comparison Current season

NOOKC
109.3
Points scored / game
120.2
120.5
Points allowed / game
108.5
46.5 %
Field goal %
44.0 %
29.0 %
3-point %
30.9 %
31.0
3-pointers attempted / game
32.4
83.6 %
Free throw %
86.4 %
44.3
Rebounds / game
46.0
23.5
Assists / game
22.0
12.3
Steals / game
8.4
4.8
Blocks / game
6.8
16.5
Turnovers / game
13.6

Top performers

Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #120pts / game
Zion WilliamsonF · #16assists
Zion WilliamsonF · #19rebounds
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #230pts / game
Isaiah HartensteinC · #558assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #5514rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
NO
No games played yet.
OKC
No games played yet.

Team comparison

NOOKC
0-5Record6-0
109.3Points scored / game120.2
120.5Points allowed / game108.5
-9.6Adjusted margin / game+9.9
L5Current streakW6
0-5Last 10 games6-0
0-3 roadHome / road record3-0 home
21-61 (-9.4)Last season68-14 (+12.9)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

New Orleans Pelicans Injury report Pelicans

No injuries reported.

Oklahoma City Thunder Injury report Thunder

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.