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Timberwolves vs Suns prediction NBA · Friday, November 21

FinalMortgage Matchup Center · FanDuel SN North Extra, NBA League Pass, Arizona's Family CBS5, Suns Live
54% win MINwin PHX 46%
FavoriteMIN
Projected margin1.3
Projected total231
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (9-6) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (10-5) on Friday, November 21 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. Final score: Timberwolves 113 – Suns 114. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Timberwolves a 54% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Suns are 6-2 at home and the Timberwolves are 5-2 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 8-2 for the Suns and 8-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Suns W1, Timberwolves W2).

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Suns 115 – 116 Timberwolves, a margin of about 1.3 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns
Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX +1.4 / MIN +5.0 per game
-3.6
Home-court advantageSuns at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Suns
-1.3

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+
18%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Timberwolves win by 10+
24%

Stat comparison Current season

MINPHX
117.8
Points scored / game
116.8
111.9
Points allowed / game
115.2
47.3 %
Field goal %
45.6 %
38.4 %
3-point %
31.9 %
40.6
3-pointers attempted / game
39.7
62.7 %
Free throw %
73.9 %
51.6
Rebounds / game
39.7
27.0
Assists / game
25.3
9.2
Steals / game
8.7
4.4
Blocks / game
5.3
16.2
Turnovers / game
14.0

Top performers

Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #541pts / game
Anthony EdwardsG · #54assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712rebounds
Suns
Dillon BrooksF · #322pts / game
Devin BookerG · #1510assists
Mark WilliamsC · #258rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIN
No games played yet.
PHX
No games played yet.

Team comparison

MINPHX
10-5Record9-6
117.8Points scored / game116.8
111.9Points allowed / game115.2
+5.0Adjusted margin / game+1.4
W2Current streakW1
8-2Last 10 games8-2
5-2 roadHome / road record6-2 home
49-33 (+5.0)Last season36-46 (-3.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

No injuries reported.

Phoenix Suns Injury report Suns

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.