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Nuggets vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Friday, October 31

FinalModa Center · KUNP 16, BlazerVision, Altitude Sports, NBA League Pass
Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets
3-2 · away
Final score
107-109
Projected: 119-115
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers
4-2 · home
63% win DENwin POR 37%
FavoriteDEN
Projected margin4.1
Projected total234
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Portland Trail Blazers (3-2) host the Denver Nuggets (3-1) on Friday, October 31 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. Final score: Nuggets 107 – Trail Blazers 109. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Nuggets a 63% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-1 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Trail Blazers and 3-1 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Trail Blazers W2, Nuggets W3).

The analysis Model

The Nuggets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Trail Blazers 115 – 119 Nuggets, a margin of about 4.1 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The overall strength gap (-0.5 vs +5.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Trail Blazers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Nuggets' offense (122.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Trail Blazers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)POR -0.5 / DEN +5.8 per game
-6.4
Home-court advantageTrail Blazers at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Trail Blazers
-4.1

Scenarios

Trail Blazers win by 10+
13%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Nuggets win by 10+
32%

Stat comparison Current season

DENPOR
122.6
Points scored / game
114.6
115.8
Points allowed / game
115.3
45.8 %
Field goal %
51.1 %
32.8 %
3-point %
38.9 %
34.3
3-pointers attempted / game
43.7
79.6 %
Free throw %
70.8 %
44.5
Rebounds / game
46.3
26.0
Assists / game
30.7
10.0
Steals / game
8.3
4.8
Blocks / game
2.7
15.3
Turnovers / game
13.3

Top performers

Nuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2722pts / game
Nikola JokicC · #159assists
Nikola JokicC · #1514rebounds
Trail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #823pts / game
Jrue HolidayG · #513assists
Donovan ClinganC · #2315rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
DEN
No games played yet.
POR
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

DEN lead 3-1 this season.

Oct 31DEN107 - 109PORFeb 20DEN157 - 103PORMar 22POR112 - 128DENApr 6POR132 - 137DEN

Team comparison

DENPOR
3-1Record3-2
122.6Points scored / game114.6
115.8Points allowed / game115.3
+5.8Adjusted margin / game-0.5
W3Current streakW2
3-1Last 10 games3-2
1-1 roadHome / road record1-1 home
50-32 (+3.9)Last season36-46 (-3.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Denver Nuggets Injury report Nuggets

No injuries reported.

Portland Trail Blazers Injury report Trail Blazers

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.