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Bucks vs Hawks prediction NBA · Monday, January 19

FinalState Farm Arena · Peacock
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks
18-24 · away
Final score
112-110
Projected: 115-118
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
20-25 · home
41% win MILwin ATL 59%
FavoriteATL
Projected margin2.8
Projected total233
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (20-24) host the Milwaukee Bucks (17-24) on Monday, January 19 at 1:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. Final score: Bucks 112 – Hawks 110. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Hawks a 59% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Hawks are 7-12 at home and the Bucks are 8-14 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Hawks and 5-5 for the Bucks (current streaks: Hawks L3, Bucks L3).

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Hawks, but the Bucks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Hawks 118 – 115 Bucks, a margin of about 2.8 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' offense (117.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Bucks' defense allows clearly fewer points (115.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL -1.2 / MIL -1.7 per game
+0.5
Home-court advantageHawks at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Hawks
+2.8

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+
28%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Bucks win by 10+
15%

Stat comparison Current season

MILATL
113.1
Points scored / game
117.8
115.1
Points allowed / game
119.2
44.9 %
Field goal %
46.9 %
34.0 %
3-point %
34.8 %
41.2
3-pointers attempted / game
41.4
71.6 %
Free throw %
72.8 %
49.8
Rebounds / game
41.4
24.6
Assists / game
32.2
5.8
Steals / game
10.2
4.0
Blocks / game
3.6
16.8
Turnovers / game
14.0

Top performers

Bucks
Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #721pts / game
Kevin Porter Jr.G · #77assists
Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #717rebounds
Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #732pts / game
Dyson DanielsG · #510assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #116rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIL
No games played yet.
ATL
No games played yet.

Team comparison

MILATL
17-24Record20-24
113.1Points scored / game117.8
115.1Points allowed / game119.2
-1.7Adjusted margin / game-1.2
L3Current streakL3
5-5Last 10 games5-5
8-14 roadHome / road record7-12 home
48-34 (+2.5)Last season40-42 (-1.1)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Milwaukee Bucks Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.