Rockets vs Thunder prediction NBA · Tuesday, October 21
FinalPaycom Center · NBC, Peacock
23% win HOUwin OKC 77%
FavoriteOKC
Projected margin9.4
Projected total226
ConfidenceMedium
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Houston Rockets on Tuesday, October 21 at 7:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. Final score: Rockets 124 – Thunder 125. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 77% chance to win: prediction correct.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Thunder 118 – 108 Rockets, a margin of about 9.4 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+10.9 vs +3.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Rockets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (120.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
In points, positive = edge Thunder
Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +10.9 / HOU +3.8 per game
+7.1
Home-court advantageThunder at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Thunder
+9.4
Scenarios
Thunder win by 10+
48%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
24%
Rockets win by 10+
6%
Stat comparison Current season
HOUOKC
114.3120.5
109.8107.6
51.7 %44.0 %
40.4 %30.9 %
32.232.4
84.7 %86.4 %
44.846.0
28.222.0
10.28.4
6.06.8
15.813.6
Top performers
Rockets
Alperen SengunC · #2839pts / gameAlperen SengunC · #287assists
Steven AdamsC · #1213reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #235pts / gameShai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #25assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #558reboundsRecent form
Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
HOUNo games played yet.
OKCNo games played yet.
HOU
Team comparison
| HOU | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 114.3 | Points scored / game | 120.5 |
| 109.8 | Points allowed / game | 107.6 |
| +3.8 | Adjusted margin / game | +10.9 |
| – | Current streak | – |
| – | Last 10 games | – |
| – | Home / road record | – |
| 52-30 (+4.5) | Last season | 68-14 (+12.9) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Rockets
No injuries reported.
Injury report Thunder
No injuries reported.
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.