Crvena Zvezda vs Virtus Bologna prediction EuroLeague · Wednesday, March 31
At a glance
Virtus Bologna (4-4) host Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade (6-3) on Wednesday, March 31 at 2:30 PM ET at VIRTUS ARENA in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade a 64% chance to win and projects a 87-82 score (Crvena Zvezda – Virtus Bologna), about 169 total points. This season, Virtus Bologna are 2-1 at home and Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-4 for Virtus Bologna and 6-3 for Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade (current streaks: Virtus Bologna L2, Crvena Zvezda W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 32% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
Crvena Zvezda is favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Virtus Bologna 82 – 87 Crvena Zvezda, a margin of about 4.0 points in favor of Crvena Zvezda and a total around 169 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.
- The overall strength gap (-3.0 vs +4.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
- Virtus Bologna needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- Crvena Zvezda's defense allows clearly fewer points (81.3 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison EuroLeague
CZVVIR
Recent form
CZV
103-73W
100-78L
82-85W
90-81W
84-82VIR
74-91L
81-90W
86-78W96-94W94-87Team comparison
| CZV | VIR | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | Record | 4-4 |
| 86.3 | Points scored / game | 83.4 |
| 81.3 | Points allowed / game | 86.9 |
| +4.3 | Adjusted margin / game | -3.0 |
| W2 | Current streak | L2 |
| 6-3 | Last 10 games | 4-4 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 2-1 home |
| 21-18 (+1.1) | Last season | 14-24 (-4.6) |
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.