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Suns vs Lakers prediction NBA · Sunday, April 11

Sun, Apr 11 · 8:30 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +, Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

111-117

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · home

32% win PHXwin LAL 68%

FavoriteLAL

Projected margin6.0

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Sunday, April 11 at 8:30 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 68% chance to win and projects a 111-117 score (Suns – Lakers), about 228 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Lakers W1, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Lakers, but the Suns have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Lakers 117 – 111 Suns, a margin of about 6.0 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+3.5 vs -1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Lakers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAL +3.5 / PHX -1.4 per game

+4.9

Home-court advantageLakers at home

+2.3

InjuriesLAL: 2 out, 2 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Lakers

+6.0

Scenarios

Lakers win by 10+

37%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Suns win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXLAL

111.9

Points scored / game

118.4

113.6

Points allowed / game

114.3

45.6 %

Field goal %

52.9 %

31.9 %

3-point %

39.2 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

36.2

73.9 %

Free throw %

79.1 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

38.0

25.3

Assists / game

24.0

8.7

Steals / game

10.8

5.3

Blocks / game

5.8

14.0

Turnovers / game

16.6

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 32% · LAL 68%

ESPN BPI

PHX 32% · LAL 68%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		LAL
1-2	Record	4-1
111.9	Points scored / game	118.4
113.6	Points allowed / game	114.3
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	+3.5
L1	Current streak	W1
1-2	Last 10 games	4-1
0-2 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	53-29 (+1.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.