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Lakers vs Suns prediction NBA · Monday, February 8

Mon, Feb 8 · 9:30 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · NBCSN, Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · away

Projected score

114-113

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

54% win LALwin PHX 46%

FavoriteLAL

Projected margin1.4

Projected total228

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Monday, February 8 at 9:30 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 54% chance to win and projects a 114-113 score (Lakers – Suns), about 228 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Suns L1, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Suns 113 – 114 Lakers, a margin of about 1.4 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.4 vs +3.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / LAL +3.5 per game

-4.9

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 2 questionable

+1.3

Expected marginfor Suns

-1.4

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

18%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Lakers win by 10+

24%

Stat comparison Current season

LALPHX

118.4

Points scored / game

111.9

114.3

Points allowed / game

113.6

52.9 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

39.2 %

3-point %

31.9 %

36.2

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

79.1 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

38.0

Rebounds / game

39.7

24.0

Assists / game

25.3

10.8

Steals / game

8.7

5.8

Blocks / game

5.3

16.6

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAL 54% · PHX 46%

ESPN BPI

LAL 61% · PHX 39%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LAL		PHX
4-1	Record	1-2
118.4	Points scored / game	111.9
114.3	Points allowed / game	113.6
+3.5	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
W1	Current streak	L1
4-1	Last 10 games	1-2
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
53-29 (+1.8)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.