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Jazz vs Warriors prediction NBA · Sunday, April 11

Sun, Apr 11 · 8:30 PM ETChase Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Utah Jazz

1-4 · away

Projected score

113-121

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · home

25% win UTAHwin GS 75%

FavoriteGS

Projected margin8.5

Projected total234

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Sunday, April 11 at 8:30 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 75% chance to win and projects a 113-121 score (Jazz – Warriors), about 234 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Warriors W2, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Warriors dominate this matchup. The model projects Warriors 121 – 113 Jazz, a margin of about 8.5 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (-0.8 vs -7.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Warriors' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / UTAH -7.0 per game

+6.2

Home-court advantageWarriors at home

+2.3

InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Warriors

+8.5

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+

45%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

25%

Jazz win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHGS

116.1

Points scored / game

115.5

124.3

Points allowed / game

116.4

45.4 %

Field goal %

45.0 %

33.9 %

3-point %

36.9 %

34.8

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

76.6 %

Free throw %

82.2 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

43.8

26.8

Assists / game

25.6

5.0

Steals / game

9.6

6.4

Blocks / game

3.8

17.0

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

UTAH 25% · GS 75%

ESPN BPI

UTAH 30% · GS 70%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

UTAH		GS
1-4	Record	2-3
116.1	Points scored / game	115.5
124.3	Points allowed / game	116.4
-7.0	Adjusted margin / game	-0.8
L3	Current streak	W2
1-4	Last 10 games	2-3
0-1 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
22-60 (-8.4)	Last season	37-45 (-0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.