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Warriors vs Jazz prediction NBA · Thursday, January 28

Thu, Jan 28 · 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · away

Projected score

117-115

Utah Jazz

1-4 · home

57% win GSwin UTAH 43%

FavoriteGS

Projected margin2.3

Projected total232

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Thursday, January 28 at 9:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 57% chance to win and projects a 117-115 score (Warriors – Jazz), about 232 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Jazz L3, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Warriors played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz) and Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Jazz 115 – 117 Warriors, a margin of about 2.3 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Warriors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs -0.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Warriors' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz

Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / GS -0.8 per game

-6.2

Home-court advantageJazz at home

+2.3

Back-to-backWarriors played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Jazz

-2.3

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+

16%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Warriors win by 10+

27%

Stat comparison Current season

GSUTAH

115.5

Points scored / game

116.1

116.4

Points allowed / game

124.3

45.0 %

Field goal %

45.4 %

36.9 %

3-point %

33.9 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

34.8

82.2 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

43.8

Rebounds / game

46.8

25.6

Assists / game

26.8

9.6

Steals / game

5.0

3.8

Blocks / game

6.4

16.8

Turnovers / game

17.0

Players to watch

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

GS 57% · UTAH 43%

ESPN BPI

GS 60% · UTAH 40%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

GS		UTAH
2-3	Record	1-4
115.5	Points scored / game	116.1
116.4	Points allowed / game	124.3
-0.8	Adjusted margin / game	-7.0
W2	Current streak	L3
2-3	Last 10 games	1-4
2-2 road	Home / road record	1-3 home
37-45 (-0.6)	Last season	22-60 (-8.4)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.