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Pacers vs Knicks prediction NBA · Sunday, April 11

Sun, Apr 11 · 6:00 PM ETMadison Square Garden · DAZN IND
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers
2-3 · away
Projected score
106-120
New York Knicks
New York Knicks
2-3 · home
12% win INDwin NY 88%
FavoriteNY
Projected margin14.5
Projected total226
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Sunday, April 11 at 6:00 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 88% chance to win and projects a 106-120 score (Pacers – Knicks), about 226 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Knicks W2, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 16% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Knicks dominate this matchup. The model projects Knicks 120 – 106 Pacers, a margin of about 14.5 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others).

  • The overall strength gap (+3.8 vs -4.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Knicks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)NY +3.8 / IND -4.7 per game
+8.6
Home-court advantageKnicks at home
+2.3
InjuriesNY: 1 out, 0 questionable · IND: 5 out, 2 questionable
+3.6
Expected marginfor Knicks
+14.5

Scenarios

Knicks win by 10+
64%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
16%
Pacers win by 10+
3%

Stat comparison Current season

INDNY
113.2
Points scored / game
114.5
118.8
Points allowed / game
110.0
47.1 %
Field goal %
42.2 %
31.2 %
3-point %
35.9 %
37.8
3-pointers attempted / game
39.0
72.7 %
Free throw %
75.8 %
44.0
Rebounds / game
48.2
29.4
Assists / game
26.8
6.4
Steals / game
7.2
4.8
Blocks / game
4.4
14.8
Turnovers / game
14.8

Players to watch

Pacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds
Knicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game
Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
IND
WNO123-120LDAL121-105WBKN136-109LMIL110-102LPHI114-109
NY
LPHI106-100LBOS107-103LORL111-102WDET111-97WCHI133-127

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 13NYupcomingINDNov 22INDupcomingNYApr 11INDthis gameNY

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
IND 12% · NY 88%
ESPN BPI
IND 34% · NY 66%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

INDNY
2-3Record2-3
113.2Points scored / game114.5
118.8Points allowed / game110.0
-4.7Adjusted margin / game+3.8
L2Current streakW2
2-3Last 10 games2-3
2-1 roadHome / road record1-2 home
19-63 (-8.0)Last season53-29 (+6.3)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Indiana Pacers Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut
T.J. McConnell GOut
Ben Sheppard GOut
Tyrese Haliburton GOut
Johnny Furphy GOut
Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day
Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

New York Knicks Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.