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Hawks vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Sunday, April 11

Sun, Apr 11 · 6:00 PM ETRocket Arena · DAZN CLE

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · away

Projected score

115-119

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · home

38% win ATLwin CLE 62%

FavoriteCLE

Projected margin3.7

Projected total234

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Sunday, April 11 at 6:00 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 62% chance to win and projects a 115-119 score (Hawks – Cavaliers), about 234 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Cavaliers, but the Hawks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Cavaliers 119 – 115 Hawks, a margin of about 3.7 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Cavaliers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CLE +3.0 / ATL +2.7 per game

+0.3

Home-court advantageCavaliers at home

+2.3

InjuriesCLE: 0 out, 2 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

+1.1

Expected marginfor Cavaliers

+3.7

Scenarios

Cavaliers win by 10+

31%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Hawks win by 10+

14%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLCLE

119.0

Points scored / game

119.6

115.8

Points allowed / game

116.0

46.9 %

Field goal %

46.8 %

34.8 %

3-point %

36.7 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

37.5

72.8 %

Free throw %

79.3 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

47.0

32.2

Assists / game

26.3

10.2

Steals / game

8.8

3.6

Blocks / game

7.5

14.0

Turnovers / game

17.3

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 38% · CLE 62%

ESPN BPI

ATL 42% · CLE 58%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATL		CLE
2-3	Record	3-1
119.0	Points scored / game	119.6
115.8	Points allowed / game	116.0
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	+3.0
L3	Current streak	W3
2-3	Last 10 games	3-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	52-30 (+4.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GDay-To-Day

Jaylon Tyson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.