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Cavaliers vs Hawks prediction NBA · Thursday, October 29

Thu, Oct 29 · 8:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · NBA TV

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · away

Projected score

116-117

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · home

47% win CLEwin ATL 53%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin0.9

Projected total233

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Thursday, October 29 at 8:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 53% chance to win and projects a 116-117 score (Cavaliers – Hawks), about 233 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Hawks L3, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Hawks and the Cavaliers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Hawks 117 – 116 Cavaliers, a margin of about 0.9 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Hawks and the Cavaliers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Cavaliers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / CLE +3.0 per game

-0.3

Home-court advantageHawks at home

+2.3

InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · CLE: 0 out, 2 questionable

-1.1

Expected marginfor Hawks

+0.9

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+

23%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Cavaliers win by 10+

19%

Stat comparison Current season

CLEATL

119.6

Points scored / game

119.0

116.0

Points allowed / game

115.8

46.8 %

Field goal %

46.9 %

36.7 %

3-point %

34.8 %

37.5

3-pointers attempted / game

41.4

79.3 %

Free throw %

72.8 %

47.0

Rebounds / game

41.4

26.3

Assists / game

32.2

8.8

Steals / game

10.2

7.5

Blocks / game

3.6

17.3

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CLE 47% · ATL 53%

ESPN BPI

CLE 48% · ATL 52%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CLE		ATL
3-1	Record	2-3
119.6	Points scored / game	119.0
116.0	Points allowed / game	115.8
+3.0	Adjusted margin / game	+2.7
W3	Current streak	L3
3-1	Last 10 games	2-3
0-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
52-30 (+4.1)	Last season	46-36 (+2.4)
Yes	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GDay-To-Day

Jaylon Tyson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.