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Raptors vs Nets prediction NBA · Sunday, April 11

Sun, Apr 11 · 6:00 PM ETBarclays Center · DAZN (YES)

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · away

Projected score

118-106

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · home

81% win TORwin BKN 19%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin11.1

Projected total224

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Brooklyn Nets (0-4) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Sunday, April 11 at 6:00 PM ET at Barclays Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 81% chance to win and projects a 118-106 score (Raptors – Nets), about 224 total points. This season, the Nets are 0-2 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Nets and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Nets L4, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors), Egor Demin (Nets) and Tyler Bilodeau (Nets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Raptors start with a clear edge. The model projects Nets 106 – 118 Raptors, a margin of about 11.1 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-8.4 vs +5.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Raptors' offense (115.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BKN -8.4 / TOR +5.0 per game

-13.4

Home-court advantageNets at home

+2.3

InjuriesBKN: 2 out, 0 questionable · TOR: 2 out, 0 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Nets

-11.1

Scenarios

Nets win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

21%

Raptors win by 10+

54%

Stat comparison Current season

TORBKN

115.4

Points scored / game

108.0

109.5

Points allowed / game

117.9

44.2 %

Field goal %

42.9 %

30.4 %

3-point %

36.7 %

34.5

3-pointers attempted / game

42.3

79.0 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

45.8

Rebounds / game

43.5

27.3

Assists / game

24.0

14.3

Steals / game

10.0

5.5

Blocks / game

4.0

14.0

Turnovers / game

17.5

Players to watch

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

TOR 81% · BKN 19%

ESPN BPI

TOR 76% · BKN 24%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

TOR		BKN
3-1	Record	0-4
115.4	Points scored / game	108.0
109.5	Points allowed / game	117.9
+5.0	Adjusted margin / game	-8.4
W1	Current streak	L4
3-1	Last 10 games	0-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
46-36 (+2.8)	Last season	20-62 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.