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Nets vs Raptors prediction NBA · Friday, November 27

Fri, Nov 27 · 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · DAZN (YES)

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · away

Projected score

104-120

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · home

10% win BKNwin TOR 90%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin15.7

Projected total224

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Brooklyn Nets (0-4) on Friday, November 27 at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 90% chance to win and projects a 104-120 score (Nets – Raptors), about 224 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Nets are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 0-4 for the Nets (current streaks: Raptors W1, Nets L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 15% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Egor Demin (Nets), Tyler Bilodeau (Nets), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Raptors dominate this matchup. The model projects Raptors 120 – 104 Nets, a margin of about 15.7 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+5.0 vs -8.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Raptors' offense (115.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Raptors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)TOR +5.0 / BKN -8.4 per game

+13.4

Home-court advantageRaptors at home

+2.3

InjuriesTOR: 2 out, 0 questionable · BKN: 2 out, 0 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Raptors

+15.7

Scenarios

Raptors win by 10+

68%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

15%

Nets win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

BKNTOR

108.0

Points scored / game

115.4

117.9

Points allowed / game

109.5

42.9 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

36.7 %

3-point %

30.4 %

42.3

3-pointers attempted / game

34.5

76.6 %

Free throw %

79.0 %

43.5

Rebounds / game

45.8

24.0

Assists / game

27.3

10.0

Steals / game

14.3

4.0

Blocks / game

5.5

17.5

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BKN 10% · TOR 90%

ESPN BPI

BKN 16% · TOR 84%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BKN		TOR
0-4	Record	3-1
108.0	Points scored / game	115.4
117.9	Points allowed / game	109.5
-8.4	Adjusted margin / game	+5.0
L4	Current streak	W1
0-4	Last 10 games	3-1
0-2 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
20-62 (-10.0)	Last season	46-36 (+2.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.