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Grizzlies vs Suns prediction NBA · Friday, April 9

Fri, Apr 9 · 10:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

114-115

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

46% win MEMwin PHX 54%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin1.4

Projected total229

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Friday, April 9 at 10:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 54% chance to win and projects a 114-115 score (Grizzlies – Suns), about 229 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Suns L1, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Suns 115 – 114 Grizzlies, a margin of about 1.4 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Grizzlies' offense (115.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / MEM -1.8 per game

+0.3

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Suns

+1.4

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

24%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Grizzlies win by 10+

18%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMPHX

115.2

Points scored / game

111.9

117.3

Points allowed / game

113.6

45.3 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

39.1 %

3-point %

31.9 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

82.8 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

39.7

25.0

Assists / game

25.3

6.3

Steals / game

8.7

6.3

Blocks / game

5.3

15.5

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 46% · PHX 54%

ESPN BPI

MEM 40% · PHX 60%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		PHX
4-0	Record	1-2
115.2	Points scored / game	111.9
117.3	Points allowed / game	113.6
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
W4	Current streak	L1
4-0	Last 10 games	1-2
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.