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Suns vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Monday, March 15

Mon, Mar 15 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, DAZN MEM

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

113-116

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

40% win PHXwin MEM 60%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin3.2

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Monday, March 15 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 60% chance to win and projects a 113-116 score (Suns – Grizzlies), about 229 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Grizzlies, but the Suns have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Grizzlies 116 – 113 Suns, a margin of about 3.2 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Grizzlies' offense (115.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / PHX -1.4 per game

-0.3

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

+1.3

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

+3.2

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

29%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Suns win by 10+

14%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXMEM

111.9

Points scored / game

115.2

113.6

Points allowed / game

117.3

45.6 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

31.9 %

3-point %

39.1 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

73.9 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

50.0

25.3

Assists / game

25.0

8.7

Steals / game

6.3

5.3

Blocks / game

6.3

14.0

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 40% · MEM 60%

ESPN BPI

PHX 49% · MEM 51%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		MEM
1-2	Record	4-0
111.9	Points scored / game	115.2
113.6	Points allowed / game	117.3
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
L1	Current streak	W4
1-2	Last 10 games	4-0
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.