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Timberwolves vs Lakers prediction NBA · Friday, April 9

Fri, Apr 9 · 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves
3-2 · away
Projected score
115-116
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 · home
49% win MINwin LAL 51%
FavoriteLAL
Projected margin0.2
Projected total230
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Friday, April 9 at 10:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 51% chance to win and projects a 115-116 score (Timberwolves – Lakers), about 230 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Lakers W1, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves), Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Lakers 116 – 115 Timberwolves, a margin of about 0.2 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.

  • The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Lakers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAL +3.5 / MIN +5.2 per game
-1.7
Home-court advantageLakers at home
+2.3
InjuriesLAL: 2 out, 1 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable
-0.3
Expected marginfor Lakers
+0.2

Scenarios

Lakers win by 10+
22%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Timberwolves win by 10+
21%

Stat comparison Current season

MINLAL
118.7
Points scored / game
118.4
112.6
Points allowed / game
114.3
47.3 %
Field goal %
52.9 %
38.4 %
3-point %
39.2 %
40.6
3-pointers attempted / game
36.2
62.7 %
Free throw %
79.1 %
51.6
Rebounds / game
38.0
27.0
Assists / game
24.0
9.2
Steals / game
10.8
4.4
Blocks / game
5.8
16.2
Turnovers / game
16.6

Players to watch

Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds
Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIN
WMIA131-106WORL115-93WTOR117-94LCLE127-125 OTLGS119-114
LAL
WGS127-105WLAC125-117WUTAH132-123LPOR136-129WLAC103-87

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Dec 16LALupcomingMINDec 18LALupcomingMINApr 7MINupcomingLALApr 9MINthis gameLAL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
MIN 49% · LAL 51%
ESPN BPI
MIN 52% · LAL 48%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

MINLAL
3-2Record4-1
118.7Points scored / game118.4
112.6Points allowed / game114.3
+5.2Adjusted margin / game+3.5
L2Current streakW1
3-2Last 10 games4-1
2-1 roadHome / road record2-1 home
49-33 (+3.4)Last season53-29 (+1.8)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut
Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut
Adou Thiero FOut
Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.