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Lakers vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Friday, December 18

Fri, Dec 18 · 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 · away
Projected score
113-117
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves
3-2 · home
35% win LALwin MIN 65%
FavoriteMIN
Projected margin4.7
Projected total230
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Friday, December 18 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 65% chance to win and projects a 113-117 score (Lakers – Timberwolves), about 230 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Timberwolves are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Timberwolves 117 – 113 Lakers, a margin of about 4.7 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero.

  • The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / LAL +3.5 per game
+1.7
Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home
+2.3
InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 2 questionable
+0.7
Expected marginfor Timberwolves
+4.7

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+
34%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Lakers win by 10+
12%

Stat comparison Current season

LALMIN
118.4
Points scored / game
118.7
114.3
Points allowed / game
112.6
52.9 %
Field goal %
47.3 %
39.2 %
3-point %
38.4 %
36.2
3-pointers attempted / game
40.6
79.1 %
Free throw %
62.7 %
38.0
Rebounds / game
51.6
24.0
Assists / game
27.0
10.8
Steals / game
9.2
5.8
Blocks / game
4.4
16.6
Turnovers / game
16.2

Players to watch

Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds
Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
LAL
WGS127-105WLAC125-117WUTAH132-123LPOR136-129WLAC103-87
MIN
WMIA131-106WORL115-93WTOR117-94LCLE127-125 OTLGS119-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Dec 16LALupcomingMINDec 18LALthis gameMINApr 7MINupcomingLALApr 9MINupcomingLAL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
LAL 35% · MIN 65%
ESPN BPI
LAL 44% · MIN 56%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LALMIN
4-1Record3-2
118.4Points scored / game118.7
114.3Points allowed / game112.6
+3.5Adjusted margin / game+5.2
W1Current streakL2
4-1Last 10 games3-2
2-0 roadHome / road record1-1 home
53-29 (+1.8)Last season49-33 (+3.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut
Adou Thiero FOut
Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day
Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut
Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.