Warriors vs Thunder prediction NBA · Friday, April 9
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Friday, April 9 at 8:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 77% chance to win and projects a 107-116 score (Warriors – Thunder), about 223 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Thunder L1, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Thunder and the Warriors played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder) and Thomas Sorber (Thunder)…. Prediction confidence: high.
The analysis Model
The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Thunder 116 – 107 Warriors, a margin of about 9.2 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder and the Warriors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other).
- The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs -0.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
GSOKC
Players to watch
Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsRecent form
GS
127-105L
111-108L
131-122W
134-114W
119-114OKC
116-104W96-84W
108-101W125-114L
120-96Head-to-head
3 meetings scheduled this season.
OKC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| GS | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 115.5 | Points scored / game | 115.8 |
| 116.4 | Points allowed / game | 106.9 |
| -0.8 | Adjusted margin / game | +7.6 |
| W2 | Current streak | L1 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 2-2 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 37-45 (-0.6) | Last season | 64-18 (+11.1) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Warriors
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.