Thunder vs Warriors prediction NBA · Sunday, January 24
At a glance
The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Sunday, January 24 at 8:30 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 64% chance to win and projects a 114-110 score (Thunder – Warriors), about 224 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Warriors W2, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Thunder are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Warriors 110 – 114 Thunder, a margin of about 4.6 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others).
- The overall strength gap (-0.8 vs +7.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCGS
Players to watch
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsWarriors
Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2reboundsRecent form
OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96GS
127-105L
111-108L131-122W134-114W
119-114Head-to-head
3 meetings scheduled this season.
OKC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| OKC | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 115.8 | Points scored / game | 115.5 |
| 106.9 | Points allowed / game | 116.4 |
| +7.6 | Adjusted margin / game | -0.8 |
| L1 | Current streak | W2 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 2-3 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 0-1 home |
| 64-18 (+11.1) | Last season | 37-45 (-0.6) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Warriors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.