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Wizards vs Heat prediction NBA · Friday, April 9

Fri, Apr 9 · 8:00 PM ETKaseya Center

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

112-122

Miami Heat

1-4 · home

20% win WSHwin MIA 80%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin10.6

Projected total234

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Miami Heat (1-4) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Friday, April 9 at 8:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 80% chance to win and projects a 112-122 score (Wizards – Heat), about 234 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Heat W1, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Heat played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Heat start with a clear edge. The model projects Heat 122 – 112 Wizards, a margin of about 10.6 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Heat played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (-0.6 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Heat's defense allows clearly fewer points (119.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA -0.6 / WSH -7.7 per game

+7.2

Home-court advantageHeat at home

+2.3

Back-to-backHeat played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesMIA: 0 out, 1 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+2.7

Expected marginfor Heat

+10.6

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+

52%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

22%

Wizards win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

WSHMIA

113.1

Points scored / game

118.6

122.2

Points allowed / game

119.2

48.0 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

28.5 %

3-point %

31.7 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

83.1 %

Free throw %

71.7 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

42.8

25.8

Assists / game

27.0

7.4

Steals / game

8.4

5.6

Blocks / game

5.4

13.6

Turnovers / game

14.2

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 20% · MIA 80%

ESPN BPI

WSH 36% · MIA 64%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSH		MIA
2-3	Record	1-4
113.1	Points scored / game	118.6
122.2	Points allowed / game	119.2
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	-0.6
L2	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	1-4
1-2 road	Home / road record	0-3 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	43-39 (+2.3)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.