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Heat vs Wizards prediction NBA · Wednesday, February 17

Wed, Feb 17 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

121-114

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

73% win MIAwin WSH 27%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin7.6

Projected total235

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Wednesday, February 17 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 73% chance to win and projects a 121-114 score (Heat – Wizards), about 235 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Wizards L2, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Heat start with a clear edge. The model projects Wizards 114 – 121 Heat, a margin of about 7.6 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs -0.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Heat's defense allows clearly fewer points (119.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / MIA -0.6 per game

-7.2

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Wizards

-7.6

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Heat win by 10+

42%

Stat comparison Current season

MIAWSH

118.6

Points scored / game

113.1

119.2

Points allowed / game

122.2

45.3 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

31.7 %

3-point %

28.5 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

71.7 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

40.0

27.0

Assists / game

25.8

8.4

Steals / game

7.4

5.4

Blocks / game

5.6

14.2

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 73% · WSH 27%

ESPN BPI

MIA 59% · WSH 41%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIA		WSH
1-4	Record	2-3
118.6	Points scored / game	113.1
119.2	Points allowed / game	122.2
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
W1	Current streak	L2
1-4	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.