Cavaliers vs Pacers prediction NBA · Friday, April 9
At a glance
The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Friday, April 9 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 77% chance to win and projects a 120-111 score (Cavaliers – Pacers), about 232 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Pacers L2, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) and Johnny Furphy (Pacers). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Cavaliers dominate this matchup. The model projects Pacers 111 – 120 Cavaliers, a margin of about 9.3 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-4.7 vs +3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
CLEIND
Players to watch
Cavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game
James HardenG · #16.8assists
Evan MobleyC · #410.0reboundsPacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0reboundsRecent form
CLE
132-116L
114-106W
125-121W
127-125 OTW
121-111IND
123-120L
121-105W136-109L
110-102L114-109Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
IND
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| CLE | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 119.6 | Points scored / game | 113.2 |
| 116.0 | Points allowed / game | 118.8 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.7 |
| W3 | Current streak | L2 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 2-3 |
| 0-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 52-30 (+4.1) | Last season | 19-63 (-8.0) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Cavaliers
Injury report Pacers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.