Pacers vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Friday, November 20
At a glance
The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Friday, November 20 at 7:30 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 87% chance to win and projects a 109-123 score (Pacers – Cavaliers), about 232 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 17% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) and Johnny Furphy (Pacers). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Cavaliers dominate this matchup. The model projects Cavaliers 123 – 109 Pacers, a margin of about 13.9 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+3.0 vs -4.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
INDCLE
Players to watch
Pacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0reboundsCavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game
James HardenG · #16.8assists
Evan MobleyC · #410.0reboundsRecent form
IND
123-120L
121-105W
136-109L
110-102L
114-109CLE
132-116L114-106W125-121W
127-125 OTW
121-111Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
IND
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| IND | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| 113.2 | Points scored / game | 119.6 |
| 118.8 | Points allowed / game | 116.0 |
| -4.7 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| L2 | Current streak | W3 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 19-63 (-8.0) | Last season | 52-30 (+4.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pacers
Injury report Cavaliers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.