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76ers vs Heat prediction NBA · Thursday, April 8

Thu, Apr 8 · 7:00 PM ETKaseya Center · Prime Video

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · away

Projected score

113-118

Miami Heat

1-4 · home

36% win PHIwin MIA 64%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin4.6

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Miami Heat (1-4) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Thursday, April 8 at 7:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 64% chance to win and projects a 113-118 score (76ers – Heat), about 231 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Heat W1, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers) and Ariel Hukporti (76ers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Heat are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Heat 118 – 113 76ers, a margin of about 4.6 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others).

The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The 76ers' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA -0.6 / PHI +0.7 per game

-1.3

Home-court advantageHeat at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIA: 0 out, 1 questionable · PHI: 4 out, 1 questionable

+3.6

Expected marginfor Heat

+4.6

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+

33%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

76ers win by 10+

12%

Stat comparison Current season

PHIMIA

114.4

Points scored / game

118.6

113.5

Points allowed / game

119.2

42.8 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

32.6 %

3-point %

31.7 %

35.0

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

77.5 %

Free throw %

71.7 %

42.2

Rebounds / game

42.8

24.6

Assists / game

27.0

9.8

Steals / game

8.4

5.6

Blocks / game

5.4

12.6

Turnovers / game

14.2

Players to watch

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHI 36% · MIA 64%

ESPN BPI

PHI 53% · MIA 47%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

PHI		MIA
4-1	Record	1-4
114.4	Points scored / game	118.6
113.5	Points allowed / game	119.2
+0.7	Adjusted margin / game	-0.6
W1	Current streak	W1
4-1	Last 10 games	1-4
2-0 road	Home / road record	0-3 home
45-37 (-0.2)	Last season	43-39 (+2.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.