Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Heat vs 76ers prediction NBA · Friday, January 8

Fri, Jan 8 · 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · ESPN

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

114-116

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · home

45% win MIAwin PHI 55%

FavoritePHI

Projected margin1.6

Projected total230

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Friday, January 8 at 7:00 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the 76ers a 55% chance to win and projects a 114-116 score (Heat – 76ers), about 230 total points. This season, the 76ers are 2-1 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the 76ers and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: 76ers W1, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Heat played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers) and Ariel Hukporti (76ers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects 76ers 116 – 114 Heat, a margin of about 1.6 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Heat played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others).

The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The 76ers' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI +0.7 / MIA -0.6 per game

+1.3

Home-court advantage76ers at home

+2.3

Back-to-backHeat played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesPHI: 4 out, 1 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

-3.6

Expected marginfor 76ers

+1.6

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+

25%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Heat win by 10+

18%

Stat comparison Current season

MIAPHI

118.6

Points scored / game

114.4

119.2

Points allowed / game

113.5

45.3 %

Field goal %

42.8 %

31.7 %

3-point %

32.6 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

35.0

71.7 %

Free throw %

77.5 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

42.2

27.0

Assists / game

24.6

8.4

Steals / game

9.8

5.4

Blocks / game

5.6

14.2

Turnovers / game

12.6

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 45% · PHI 55%

ESPN BPI

MIA 33% · PHI 67%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIA		PHI
1-4	Record	4-1
118.6	Points scored / game	114.4
119.2	Points allowed / game	113.5
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	+0.7
W1	Current streak	W1
1-4	Last 10 games	4-1
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	45-37 (-0.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.