Mavericks vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Wednesday, April 7
At a glance
The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Wednesday, April 7 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 81% chance to win and projects a 109-120 score (Mavericks – Trail Blazers), about 229 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Mavericks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Trail Blazers dominate this matchup. The model projects Trail Blazers 120 – 109 Mavericks, a margin of about 10.9 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+3.0 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Trail Blazers' offense (118.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DALPOR
Players to watch
Mavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / gameCooper FlaggF · #326.8assists
P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8reboundsTrail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsRecent form
DAL
128-110W
121-105L
122-106W
113-109W
120-96POR
110-98L
128-118W
124-83W128-120W
136-129Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
POR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| DAL | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-0 |
| 114.1 | Points scored / game | 118.2 |
| 117.4 | Points allowed / game | 114.7 |
| -2.8 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| W2 | Current streak | W3 |
| 3-2 | Last 10 games | 3-0 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 26-56 (-5.5) | Last season | 42-40 (-0.3) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Mavericks
Injury report Trail Blazers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.