Trail Blazers vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Thursday, January 7
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) on Thursday, January 7 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 62% chance to win and projects a 116-112 score (Trail Blazers – Mavericks), about 228 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Trail Blazers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 3-0 for the Trail Blazers (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Trail Blazers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Trail Blazers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers), Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Trail Blazers, but the Mavericks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Mavericks 112 – 116 Trail Blazers, a margin of about 3.7 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Trail Blazers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs +3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Trail Blazers' offense (118.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
PORDAL
Players to watch
Trail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsMavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / gameCooper FlaggF · #326.8assists
P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8reboundsRecent form
POR
110-98L
128-118W
124-83W128-120W
136-129DAL
128-110W
121-105L
122-106W
113-109W
120-96Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
POR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| POR | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | Record | 3-2 |
| 118.2 | Points scored / game | 114.1 |
| 114.7 | Points allowed / game | 117.4 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -2.8 |
| W3 | Current streak | W2 |
| 3-0 | Last 10 games | 3-2 |
| 2-0 road | Home / road record | 1-1 home |
| 42-40 (-0.3) | Last season | 26-56 (-5.5) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Trail Blazers
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.