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Wizards vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Wednesday, April 7

Wed, Apr 7 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · DAZN MEM

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

111-120

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

22% win WSHwin MEM 78%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin9.7

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Wednesday, April 7 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 78% chance to win and projects a 111-120 score (Wizards – Grizzlies), about 231 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Grizzlies played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Grizzlies start with a clear edge. The model projects Grizzlies 120 – 111 Wizards, a margin of about 9.7 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Grizzlies played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Grizzlies' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / WSH -7.7 per game

+6.0

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

Back-to-backGrizzlies played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+3.1

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

+9.7

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

49%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

23%

Wizards win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

WSHMEM

113.1

Points scored / game

115.2

122.2

Points allowed / game

117.3

48.0 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

28.5 %

3-point %

39.1 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

83.1 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

50.0

25.8

Assists / game

25.0

7.4

Steals / game

6.3

5.6

Blocks / game

6.3

13.6

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 22% · MEM 78%

ESPN BPI

WSH 45% · MEM 55%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSH		MEM
2-3	Record	4-0
113.1	Points scored / game	115.2
122.2	Points allowed / game	117.3
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
L2	Current streak	W4
2-3	Last 10 games	4-0
1-2 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.