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Grizzlies vs Wizards prediction NBA · Monday, November 16

Mon, Nov 16 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · MNMT

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

120-111

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

75% win MEMwin WSH 25%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin8.3

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Monday, November 16 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 75% chance to win and projects a 120-111 score (Grizzlies – Wizards), about 231 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Wizards L2, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Wizards played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Grizzlies start with a clear edge. The model projects Wizards 111 – 120 Grizzlies, a margin of about 8.3 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs -1.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Grizzlies' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / MEM -1.8 per game

-6.0

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

Back-to-backWizards played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-3.1

Expected marginfor Wizards

-8.3

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

25%

Grizzlies win by 10+

45%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMWSH

115.2

Points scored / game

113.1

117.3

Points allowed / game

122.2

45.3 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

39.1 %

3-point %

28.5 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

82.8 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

40.0

25.0

Assists / game

25.8

6.3

Steals / game

7.4

6.3

Blocks / game

5.6

15.5

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 75% · WSH 25%

ESPN BPI

MEM 50% · WSH 50%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

MEM		WSH
4-0	Record	2-3
115.2	Points scored / game	113.1
117.3	Points allowed / game	122.2
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
W4	Current streak	L2
4-0	Last 10 games	2-3
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.