Cavaliers vs Spurs prediction NBA · Wednesday, April 7
At a glance
The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Wednesday, April 7 at 7:30 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 60% chance to win and projects a 114-117 score (Cavaliers – Spurs), about 230 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Spurs W3, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Spurs played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Spurs are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Spurs 117 – 114 Cavaliers, a margin of about 3.2 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Cavaliers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
CLESA
Players to watch
Cavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game
James HardenG · #16.8assists
Evan MobleyC · #410.0reboundsSpurs
Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game
De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assistsVictor WembanyamaF · #111.4reboundsRecent form
CLE
132-116L
114-106W
125-121W
127-125 OTW
121-111SA
116-104L
114-110W
122-106W
130-103W
117-111 OT
SA
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| CLE | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 119.6 | Points scored / game | 118.9 |
| 116.0 | Points allowed / game | 111.1 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +6.6 |
| W3 | Current streak | W3 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 3-2 |
| 0-1 road | Home / road record | 1-2 home |
| 52-30 (+4.1) | Last season | 62-20 (+8.3) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Cavaliers
Injury report Spurs
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.