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Spurs vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Tuesday, December 15

Tue, Dec 15 · 8:00 PM ETRocket Arena · NBC

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

117-116

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · home

51% win SAwin CLE 49%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin0.2

Projected total232

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Tuesday, December 15 at 8:00 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 51% chance to win and projects a 117-116 score (Spurs – Cavaliers), about 232 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Cavaliers 116 – 117 Spurs, a margin of about 0.2 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Cavaliers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Cavaliers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CLE +3.0 / SA +6.6 per game

-3.6

Home-court advantageCavaliers at home

+2.3

InjuriesCLE: 0 out, 2 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

+1.1

Expected marginfor Cavaliers

-0.2

Scenarios

Cavaliers win by 10+

21%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Spurs win by 10+

22%

Stat comparison Current season

SACLE

118.9

Points scored / game

119.6

111.1

Points allowed / game

116.0

46.0 %

Field goal %

46.8 %

34.6 %

3-point %

36.7 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

37.5

78.3 %

Free throw %

79.3 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

47.0

28.2

Assists / game

26.3

9.8

Steals / game

8.8

6.6

Blocks / game

7.5

12.8

Turnovers / game

17.3

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 51% · CLE 49%

ESPN BPI

SA 59% · CLE 41%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		CLE
3-2	Record	3-1
118.9	Points scored / game	119.6
111.1	Points allowed / game	116.0
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+3.0
W3	Current streak	W3
3-2	Last 10 games	3-1
2-0 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	52-30 (+4.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GDay-To-Day

Jaylon Tyson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.