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Pacers vs Pistons prediction NBA · Wednesday, April 7

Wed, Apr 7 · 7:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · DAZN IND

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · away

Projected score

103-120

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · home

9% win INDwin DET 91%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin16.8

Projected total224

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Wednesday, April 7 at 7:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 91% chance to win and projects a 103-120 score (Pacers – Pistons), about 224 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Pistons W1, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 13% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pistons and the Pacers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Pistons dominate this matchup. The model projects Pistons 120 – 103 Pacers, a margin of about 16.8 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons and the Pacers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others).

The overall strength gap (+6.5 vs -4.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / IND -4.7 per game

+11.2

Home-court advantagePistons at home

+2.3

InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · IND: 5 out, 2 questionable

+3.3

Expected marginfor Pistons

+16.8

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+

71%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

13%

Pacers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

INDDET

113.2

Points scored / game

115.4

118.8

Points allowed / game

107.8

47.1 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

31.2 %

3-point %

37.9 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

36.4

72.7 %

Free throw %

74.4 %

44.0

Rebounds / game

46.8

29.4

Assists / game

27.0

6.4

Steals / game

8.0

4.8

Blocks / game

7.2

14.8

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

IND 9% · DET 91%

ESPN BPI

IND 32% · DET 68%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

IND		DET
2-3	Record	4-1
113.2	Points scored / game	115.4
118.8	Points allowed / game	107.8
-4.7	Adjusted margin / game	+6.5
L2	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	4-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
19-63 (-8.0)	Last season	60-22 (+8.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.