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Pistons vs Pacers prediction NBA · Sunday, December 13

Sun, Dec 13 · 5:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · DAZN IND

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

119-107

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

84% win DETwin IND 16%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin12.2

Projected total225

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Sunday, December 13 at 5:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 84% chance to win and projects a 119-107 score (Pistons – Pacers), about 225 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Pacers L2, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) and Johnny Furphy (Pacers). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Pistons start with a clear edge. The model projects Pacers 107 – 119 Pistons, a margin of about 12.2 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren.

The overall strength gap (-4.7 vs +6.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / DET +6.5 per game

-11.2

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

InjuriesIND: 5 out, 2 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

-3.3

Expected marginfor Pacers

-12.2

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

20%

Pistons win by 10+

57%

Stat comparison Current season

DETIND

115.4

Points scored / game

113.2

107.8

Points allowed / game

118.8

45.9 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

37.9 %

3-point %

31.2 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

74.4 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

44.0

27.0

Assists / game

29.4

8.0

Steals / game

6.4

7.2

Blocks / game

4.8

15.6

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 84% · IND 16%

ESPN BPI

DET 60% · IND 40%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DET		IND
4-1	Record	2-3
115.4	Points scored / game	113.2
107.8	Points allowed / game	118.8
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
W1	Current streak	L2
4-1	Last 10 games	2-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.