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Mavericks vs Lakers prediction NBA · Tuesday, April 6

Tue, Apr 6 · 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +, KFAA-TV, MavsTV
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks
3-2 · away
Projected score
110-120
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 · home
20% win DALwin LAL 80%
FavoriteLAL
Projected margin10.4
Projected total230
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Tuesday, April 6 at 10:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 80% chance to win and projects a 110-120 score (Mavericks – Lakers), about 230 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Lakers W1, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Lakers start with a clear edge. The model projects Lakers 120 – 110 Mavericks, a margin of about 10.4 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others).

  • The overall strength gap (+3.5 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Lakers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Lakers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAL +3.5 / DAL -2.8 per game
+6.3
Home-court advantageLakers at home
+2.3
InjuriesLAL: 2 out, 1 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable
+1.8
Expected marginfor Lakers
+10.4

Scenarios

Lakers win by 10+
51%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
22%
Mavericks win by 10+
5%

Stat comparison Current season

DALLAL
114.1
Points scored / game
118.4
117.4
Points allowed / game
114.3
49.0 %
Field goal %
52.9 %
34.6 %
3-point %
39.2 %
38.2
3-pointers attempted / game
36.2
76.7 %
Free throw %
79.1 %
44.2
Rebounds / game
38.0
27.6
Assists / game
24.0
9.0
Steals / game
10.8
7.4
Blocks / game
5.8
15.6
Turnovers / game
16.6

Players to watch

Mavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game
Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists
P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds
Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
DAL
LHOU128-110WIND121-105LSA122-106WMIA113-109WOKC120-96
LAL
WGS127-105WLAC125-117WUTAH132-123LPOR136-129WLAC103-87

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Feb 28LALupcomingDALMar 21DALupcomingLALApr 6DALthis gameLAL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
DAL 20% · LAL 80%
ESPN BPI
DAL 35% · LAL 65%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DALLAL
3-2Record4-1
114.1Points scored / game118.4
117.4Points allowed / game114.3
-2.8Adjusted margin / game+3.5
W2Current streakW1
3-2Last 10 games4-1
2-1 roadHome / road record2-1 home
26-56 (-5.5)Last season53-29 (+1.8)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Dallas Mavericks Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut
Santi Aldama FOut
Sergio de Larrea FOut
Dereck Lively II COut
Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut
Adou Thiero FOut
Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.