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Lakers vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Sunday, February 28

Sun, Feb 28 · 3:30 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · ABC
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 · away
Projected score
118-112
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks
3-2 · home
68% win LALwin DAL 32%
FavoriteLAL
Projected margin5.8
Projected total230
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Sunday, February 28 at 3:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 68% chance to win and projects a 118-112 score (Lakers – Mavericks), about 230 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Lakers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Mavericks 112 – 118 Lakers, a margin of about 5.8 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero.

  • The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs +3.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Lakers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / LAL +3.5 per game
-6.3
Home-court advantageMavericks at home
+2.3
InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 1 questionable
-1.8
Expected marginfor Mavericks
-5.8

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+
10%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
28%
Lakers win by 10+
37%

Stat comparison Current season

LALDAL
118.4
Points scored / game
114.1
114.3
Points allowed / game
117.4
52.9 %
Field goal %
49.0 %
39.2 %
3-point %
34.6 %
36.2
3-pointers attempted / game
38.2
79.1 %
Free throw %
76.7 %
38.0
Rebounds / game
44.2
24.0
Assists / game
27.6
10.8
Steals / game
9.0
5.8
Blocks / game
7.4
16.6
Turnovers / game
15.6

Players to watch

Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds
Mavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game
Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists
P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
LAL
WGS127-105WLAC125-117WUTAH132-123LPOR136-129WLAC103-87
DAL
LHOU128-110WIND121-105LSA122-106WMIA113-109WOKC120-96

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Feb 28LALthis gameDALMar 21DALupcomingLALApr 6DALupcomingLAL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
LAL 68% · DAL 32%
ESPN BPI
LAL 57% · DAL 43%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LALDAL
4-1Record3-2
118.4Points scored / game114.1
114.3Points allowed / game117.4
+3.5Adjusted margin / game-2.8
W1Current streakW2
4-1Last 10 games3-2
2-0 roadHome / road record1-1 home
53-29 (+1.8)Last season26-56 (-5.5)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut
Adou Thiero FOut
Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Dallas Mavericks Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut
Santi Aldama FOut
Sergio de Larrea FOut
Dereck Lively II COut
Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.