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Kings vs Spurs prediction NBA · Tuesday, April 6

Tue, Apr 6 · 8:00 PM ETFrost Bank Center · DAZN SAS

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

104-125

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · home

5% win SACwin SA 95%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin20.9

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Tuesday, April 6 at 8:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 95% chance to win and projects a 104-125 score (Kings – Spurs), about 229 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Spurs W3, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 8% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Spurs dominate this matchup. The model projects Spurs 125 – 104 Kings, a margin of about 20.9 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +6.6 / SAC -10.1 per game

+16.8

Home-court advantageSpurs at home

+2.3

InjuriesSA: 2 out, 0 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Spurs

+20.9

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+

81%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACSA

110.2

Points scored / game

118.9

122.1

Points allowed / game

111.1

44.5 %

Field goal %

46.0 %

30.0 %

3-point %

34.6 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

73.1 %

Free throw %

78.3 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

45.0

22.8

Assists / game

28.2

6.8

Steals / game

9.8

2.5

Blocks / game

6.6

14.3

Turnovers / game

12.8

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

SA lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 5% · SA 95%

ESPN BPI

SAC 8% · SA 92%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		SA
0-4	Record	3-2
110.2	Points scored / game	118.9
122.1	Points allowed / game	111.1
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L4	Current streak	W3
0-4	Last 10 games	3-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	62-20 (+8.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.