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Spurs vs Kings prediction NBA · Monday, November 23

Mon, Nov 23 · 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · DAZN SAS

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

123-106

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · home

90% win SAwin SAC 10%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin16.3

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Monday, November 23 at 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 90% chance to win and projects a 123-106 score (Spurs – Kings), about 229 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Kings L4, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 14% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings) and Ben Simmons (Kings). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Spurs dominate this matchup. The model projects Kings 106 – 123 Spurs, a margin of about 16.3 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-10.1 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Kings

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SAC -10.1 / SA +6.6 per game

-16.8

Home-court advantageKings at home

+2.3

InjuriesSAC: 4 out, 0 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Kings

-16.3

Scenarios

Kings win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

14%

Spurs win by 10+

69%

Stat comparison Current season

SASAC

118.9

Points scored / game

110.2

111.1

Points allowed / game

122.1

46.0 %

Field goal %

44.5 %

34.6 %

3-point %

30.0 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

32.5

78.3 %

Free throw %

73.1 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

41.5

28.2

Assists / game

22.8

9.8

Steals / game

6.8

6.6

Blocks / game

2.5

12.8

Turnovers / game

14.3

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

Head-to-head

SA lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 90% · SAC 10%

ESPN BPI

SA 91% · SAC 10%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		SAC
3-2	Record	0-4
118.9	Points scored / game	110.2
111.1	Points allowed / game	122.1
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-10.1
W3	Current streak	L4
3-2	Last 10 games	0-4
2-0 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	22-60 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.