Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Pistons vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Tuesday, April 6

Tue, Apr 6 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · DAZN MEM

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

116-111

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

65% win DETwin MEM 35%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin4.7

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Tuesday, April 6 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 65% chance to win and projects a 116-111 score (Pistons – Grizzlies), about 227 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Pistons, but the Grizzlies have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Grizzlies 111 – 116 Pistons, a margin of about 4.7 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs +6.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / DET +6.5 per game

-8.3

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

+1.3

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

-4.7

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

12%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Pistons win by 10+

34%

Stat comparison Current season

DETMEM

115.4

Points scored / game

115.2

107.8

Points allowed / game

117.3

45.9 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

37.9 %

3-point %

39.1 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

74.4 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

50.0

27.0

Assists / game

25.0

8.0

Steals / game

6.3

7.2

Blocks / game

6.3

15.6

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 65% · MEM 35%

ESPN BPI

DET 68% · MEM 32%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DET		MEM
4-1	Record	4-0
115.4	Points scored / game	115.2
107.8	Points allowed / game	117.3
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
W1	Current streak	W4
4-1	Last 10 games	4-0
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.