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Grizzlies vs Pistons prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 2

Wed, Dec 2 · 7:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

107-118

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · home

19% win MEMwin DET 81%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin10.9

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Wednesday, December 2 at 7:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 81% chance to win and projects a 107-118 score (Grizzlies – Pistons), about 226 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Pistons W1, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Grizzlies played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Pistons start with a clear edge. The model projects Pistons 118 – 107 Grizzlies, a margin of about 10.9 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Grizzlies played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.5 vs -1.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / MEM -1.8 per game

+8.3

Home-court advantagePistons at home

+2.3

Back-to-backGrizzlies played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Pistons

+10.9

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+

53%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

22%

Grizzlies win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

MEMDET

115.2

Points scored / game

115.4

117.3

Points allowed / game

107.8

45.3 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

39.1 %

3-point %

37.9 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

36.4

82.8 %

Free throw %

74.4 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

46.8

25.0

Assists / game

27.0

6.3

Steals / game

8.0

6.3

Blocks / game

7.2

15.5

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 19% · DET 81%

ESPN BPI

MEM 21% · DET 79%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		DET
4-0	Record	4-1
115.2	Points scored / game	115.4
117.3	Points allowed / game	107.8
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	+6.5
W4	Current streak	W1
4-0	Last 10 games	4-1
3-0 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	60-22 (+8.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.