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Knicks vs Hawks prediction NBA · Tuesday, April 6

Tue, Apr 6 · 8:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · NBC
New York Knicks
New York Knicks
2-3 · away
Projected score
114-115
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 · home
49% win NYwin ATL 51%
FavoriteATL
Projected margin0.3
Projected total229
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Tuesday, April 6 at 8:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 51% chance to win and projects a 114-115 score (Knicks – Hawks), about 229 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Hawks L3, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks), Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Hawks 115 – 114 Knicks, a margin of about 0.3 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado.

  • The Knicks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / NY +3.8 per game
-1.1
Home-court advantageHawks at home
+2.3
InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · NY: 1 out, 0 questionable
-0.9
Expected marginfor Hawks
+0.3

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+
22%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Knicks win by 10+
21%

Stat comparison Current season

NYATL
114.5
Points scored / game
119.0
110.0
Points allowed / game
115.8
42.2 %
Field goal %
46.9 %
35.9 %
3-point %
34.8 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
41.4
75.8 %
Free throw %
72.8 %
48.2
Rebounds / game
41.4
26.8
Assists / game
32.2
7.2
Steals / game
10.2
4.4
Blocks / game
3.6
14.8
Turnovers / game
14.0

Players to watch

Knicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game
Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds
Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
NY
LPHI106-100LBOS107-103LORL111-102WDET111-97WCHI133-127
ATL
WORL132-125WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 29ATLupcomingNYJan 22NYupcomingATLJan 28ATLupcomingNYApr 6NYthis gameATL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
NY 49% · ATL 51%
ESPN BPI
NY 52% · ATL 48%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

NYATL
2-3Record2-3
114.5Points scored / game119.0
110.0Points allowed / game115.8
+3.8Adjusted margin / game+2.7
W2Current streakL3
2-3Last 10 games2-3
1-1 roadHome / road record0-2 home
53-29 (+6.3)Last season46-36 (+2.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

New York Knicks Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.