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Hawks vs Knicks prediction NBA · Sunday, November 29

Sun, Nov 29 · 6:00 PM ETMadison Square Garden
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 · away
Projected score
112-116
New York Knicks
New York Knicks
2-3 · home
36% win ATLwin NY 64%
FavoriteNY
Projected margin4.3
Projected total229
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Sunday, November 29 at 6:00 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 64% chance to win and projects a 112-116 score (Hawks – Knicks), about 229 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Knicks W2, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks) and Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Knicks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Knicks 116 – 112 Hawks, a margin of about 4.3 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

  • The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Knicks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)NY +3.8 / ATL +2.7 per game
+1.1
Home-court advantageKnicks at home
+2.3
InjuriesNY: 1 out, 0 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable
+0.9
Expected marginfor Knicks
+4.3

Scenarios

Knicks win by 10+
33%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Hawks win by 10+
13%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLNY
119.0
Points scored / game
114.5
115.8
Points allowed / game
110.0
46.9 %
Field goal %
42.2 %
34.8 %
3-point %
35.9 %
41.4
3-pointers attempted / game
39.0
72.8 %
Free throw %
75.8 %
41.4
Rebounds / game
48.2
32.2
Assists / game
26.8
10.2
Steals / game
7.2
3.6
Blocks / game
4.4
14.0
Turnovers / game
14.8

Players to watch

Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds
Knicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game
Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
ATL
WORL132-125WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117
NY
LPHI106-100LBOS107-103LORL111-102WDET111-97WCHI133-127

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 29ATLthis gameNYJan 22NYupcomingATLJan 28ATLupcomingNYApr 6NYupcomingATL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
ATL 36% · NY 64%
ESPN BPI
ATL 38% · NY 63%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATLNY
2-3Record2-3
119.0Points scored / game114.5
115.8Points allowed / game110.0
+2.7Adjusted margin / game+3.8
L3Current streakW2
2-3Last 10 games2-3
2-1 roadHome / road record1-2 home
46-36 (+2.4)Last season53-29 (+6.3)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

New York Knicks Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.