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Pacers vs Hornets prediction NBA · Tuesday, April 6

Tue, Apr 6 · 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · DAZN CHA, DAZN IND
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers
2-3 · away
Projected score
107-116
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets
3-2 · home
24% win INDwin CHA 76%
FavoriteCHA
Projected margin8.7
Projected total224
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (3-2) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Tuesday, April 6 at 7:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 76% chance to win and projects a 107-116 score (Pacers – Hornets), about 224 total points. This season, the Hornets are 2-1 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Hornets and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Hornets L1, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Kon Knueppel (Hornets)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Hornets start with a clear edge. The model projects Hornets 116 – 107 Pacers, a margin of about 8.7 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others).

  • The overall strength gap (+1.1 vs -4.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets
Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA +1.1 / IND -4.7 per game
+5.8
Home-court advantageHornets at home
+2.3
InjuriesCHA: 4 out, 1 questionable · IND: 5 out, 2 questionable
+0.5
Expected marginfor Hornets
+8.7

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+
46%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
25%
Pacers win by 10+
7%

Stat comparison Current season

INDCHA
113.2
Points scored / game
111.6
118.8
Points allowed / game
110.3
47.1 %
Field goal %
41.7 %
31.2 %
3-point %
30.6 %
37.8
3-pointers attempted / game
43.2
72.7 %
Free throw %
85.2 %
44.0
Rebounds / game
47.4
29.4
Assists / game
20.6
6.4
Steals / game
6.8
4.8
Blocks / game
5.2
14.8
Turnovers / game
19.0

Players to watch

Pacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds
Hornets
Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game
Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists
Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
IND
WNO123-120LDAL121-105WBKN136-109LMIL110-102LPHI114-109
CHA
WBKN110-103LATL128-81WMIA115-110WWSH110-103LDET97-89

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Mar 8CHAupcomingINDMar 11INDupcomingCHAApr 6INDthis gameCHA

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
IND 24% · CHA 76%
ESPN BPI
IND 51% · CHA 49%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

INDCHA
2-3Record3-2
113.2Points scored / game111.6
118.8Points allowed / game110.3
-4.7Adjusted margin / game+1.1
L2Current streakL1
2-3Last 10 games3-2
2-1 roadHome / road record2-1 home
19-63 (-8.0)Last season44-38 (+4.8)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Indiana Pacers Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut
T.J. McConnell GOut
Ben Sheppard GOut
Tyrese Haliburton GOut
Johnny Furphy GOut
Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day
Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Charlotte Hornets Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut
Coby White GOut
Grant Williams FOut
Kylan Boswell GOut
Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.