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Hornets vs Pacers prediction NBA · Monday, March 8

Mon, Mar 8 · 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · NBCSN

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · away

Projected score

114-110

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

63% win CHAwin IND 37%

FavoriteCHA

Projected margin4.1

Projected total224

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Monday, March 8 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 63% chance to win and projects a 114-110 score (Hornets – Pacers), about 224 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Pacers L2, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets), Kylan Boswell (Hornets), Ivica Zubac (Pacers) and T.J. McConnell (Pacers)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Hornets, but the Pacers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Pacers 110 – 114 Hornets, a margin of about 4.1 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (-4.7 vs +1.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / CHA +1.1 per game

-5.8

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

InjuriesIND: 5 out, 2 questionable · CHA: 4 out, 1 questionable

-0.5

Expected marginfor Pacers

-4.1

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

13%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Hornets win by 10+

32%

Stat comparison Current season

CHAIND

111.6

Points scored / game

113.2

110.3

Points allowed / game

118.8

41.7 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

30.6 %

3-point %

31.2 %

43.2

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

85.2 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

47.4

Rebounds / game

44.0

20.6

Assists / game

29.4

6.8

Steals / game

6.4

5.2

Blocks / game

4.8

19.0

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHA 63% · IND 37%

ESPN BPI

CHA 39% · IND 61%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

CHA		IND
3-2	Record	2-3
111.6	Points scored / game	113.2
110.3	Points allowed / game	118.8
+1.1	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
L1	Current streak	L2
3-2	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
44-38 (+4.8)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.