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Spurs vs Lakers prediction NBA · Sunday, April 4

Sun, Apr 4 · 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · NBC

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

116-114

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · home

55% win SAwin LAL 45%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin1.6

Projected total230

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Sunday, April 4 at 10:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 55% chance to win and projects a 116-114 score (Spurs – Lakers), about 230 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Lakers W1, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Lakers 114 – 116 Spurs, a margin of about 1.6 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance.

The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Lakers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAL +3.5 / SA +6.6 per game

-3.2

Home-court advantageLakers at home

+2.3

InjuriesLAL: 2 out, 2 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

-0.7

Expected marginfor Lakers

-1.6

Scenarios

Lakers win by 10+

18%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Spurs win by 10+

25%

Stat comparison Current season

SALAL

118.9

Points scored / game

118.4

111.1

Points allowed / game

114.3

46.0 %

Field goal %

52.9 %

34.6 %

3-point %

39.2 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

36.2

78.3 %

Free throw %

79.1 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

38.0

28.2

Assists / game

24.0

9.8

Steals / game

10.8

6.6

Blocks / game

5.8

12.8

Turnovers / game

16.6

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 55% · LAL 45%

ESPN BPI

SA 57% · LAL 43%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		LAL
3-2	Record	4-1
118.9	Points scored / game	118.4
111.1	Points allowed / game	114.3
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+3.5
W3	Current streak	W1
3-2	Last 10 games	4-1
2-0 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	53-29 (+1.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.