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Lakers vs Spurs prediction NBA · Saturday, February 6

Sat, Feb 6 · 8:30 PM ETFrost Bank Center · ABC

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · away

Projected score

112-118

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · home

31% win LALwin SA 69%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin6.2

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Saturday, February 6 at 8:30 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 69% chance to win and projects a 112-118 score (Lakers – Spurs), about 230 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Spurs W3, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Spurs, but the Lakers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Spurs 118 – 112 Lakers, a margin of about 6.2 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero.

The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +6.6 / LAL +3.5 per game

+3.2

Home-court advantageSpurs at home

+2.3

InjuriesSA: 2 out, 0 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 2 questionable

+0.7

Expected marginfor Spurs

+6.2

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+

38%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Lakers win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

LALSA

118.4

Points scored / game

118.9

114.3

Points allowed / game

111.1

52.9 %

Field goal %

46.0 %

39.2 %

3-point %

34.6 %

36.2

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

79.1 %

Free throw %

78.3 %

38.0

Rebounds / game

45.0

24.0

Assists / game

28.2

10.8

Steals / game

9.8

5.8

Blocks / game

6.6

16.6

Turnovers / game

12.8

Players to watch

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAL 31% · SA 69%

ESPN BPI

LAL 31% · SA 69%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LAL		SA
4-1	Record	3-2
118.4	Points scored / game	118.9
114.3	Points allowed / game	111.1
+3.5	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
W1	Current streak	W3
4-1	Last 10 games	3-2
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
53-29 (+1.8)	Last season	62-20 (+8.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.