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Grizzlies vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Sunday, April 4

Sun, Apr 4 · 5:00 PM ETBall Arena · DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

115-118

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

40% win MEMwin DEN 60%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin3.1

Projected total233

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Sunday, April 4 at 5:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 60% chance to win and projects a 115-118 score (Grizzlies – Nuggets), about 233 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

The Nuggets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Nuggets 118 – 115 Grizzlies, a margin of about 3.1 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+2.6 vs -1.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / MEM -1.8 per game

+4.4

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-3.6

Expected marginfor Nuggets

+3.1

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

29%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Grizzlies win by 10+

15%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMDEN

115.2

Points scored / game

119.2

117.3

Points allowed / game

116.2

45.3 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

39.1 %

3-point %

32.8 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

82.8 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

44.5

25.0

Assists / game

26.0

6.3

Steals / game

10.0

6.3

Blocks / game

4.8

15.5

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 40% · DEN 60%

ESPN BPI

MEM 30% · DEN 70%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		DEN
4-0	Record	2-2
115.2	Points scored / game	119.2
117.3	Points allowed / game	116.2
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
W4	Current streak	W1
4-0	Last 10 games	2-2
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.