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Nuggets vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 11

Wed, Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

115-117

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

45% win DENwin MEM 55%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin1.5

Projected total233

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Wednesday, November 11 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 55% chance to win and projects a 115-117 score (Nuggets – Grizzlies), about 233 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Grizzlies 117 – 115 Nuggets, a margin of about 1.5 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs +2.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / DEN +2.6 per game

-4.4

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+3.6

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

+1.5

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

25%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Nuggets win by 10+

18%

Stat comparison Current season

DENMEM

119.2

Points scored / game

115.2

116.2

Points allowed / game

117.3

45.8 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

32.8 %

3-point %

39.1 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

79.6 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

50.0

26.0

Assists / game

25.0

10.0

Steals / game

6.3

4.8

Blocks / game

6.3

15.3

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 45% · MEM 55%

ESPN BPI

DEN 62% · MEM 38%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

DEN		MEM
2-2	Record	4-0
119.2	Points scored / game	115.2
116.2	Points allowed / game	117.3
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
W1	Current streak	W4
2-2	Last 10 games	4-0
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.